Holding On To Hope For The Holden Commodore

"Blake Noble" (no-bull)
02/05/2014 at 17:21 • Filed to: Holden Commodore, Feature-Length

In December of 2013, news dropped that when 2017 rolls around, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! This follows up on the coattails of !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! a year earlier than Holden, in 2016. If that news isn't bad enough, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . To summarize the situation bluntly, the indigenous Australian car is facing certain extinction and the Australian automotive industry is at Death's door mat.

You could paint a picture using every shade of gray imaginable and it would still come out two suns brighter than what's going on Down Under right now. Australia's Carmageddon not only signals the loss of some genuinely excellent cars for enthusiasts, but more importantly the loss of thousands of jobs that will likely never be regained. Obviously, the irrefutable news of an escalating unemployment rate isn't what you want to hear when you are trying to shake off a global recession. Here's to hoping that the many Australians who will be out of work soon can quickly rebound from the loss of their automotive industry.

However, for those of us who have an honest admiration for what makes Holden's Commodore a Commodore — regardless if you live in its home territory or abroad — there's enough reasonable evidence out there to believe that the name of the big Aussie sedan won't wash up on another cookie-cutter Toyota Camry clone with a cliched "four-door coo-pay" roofline comb-over. If you needed some glimmer of hope to get you through all of this, then pull up a chair and tune in. Bear in mind GM still has a lot of housekeeping to do before it makes an official announcement, but here's what could likely be in store for the Commodore's future.

Four-Cylinder Commodores of Holden's Past

Since it's inception in the late 1970s, the Commodore has been a rear-drive car with optional V8 power. That's the basic iconic formula customers have come to expect and any slight change made to it has proven to be futile. Holden tried to introduce buyers to a Commodore armed with a four-cylinder engine back in the 1980s, only managing to sell a handful by the time the option was dropped from the range entirely for the VL model introduced for 1986.

Historians may be quick to point out that the four-cylinder Commodore failed mainly because it wasn't any more economical than the six-cylinder versions, and that if a modern four-cylinder were thrown under the hood of the current VF it might actually be successful. There's no argument to be made on the first half of that statement, but the second half ... well, there's reason for doubt. Ford recently tried to revive the small-engined big car concept in 2012 by dropping in a proper EcoBoost four under the hood of the Falcon. The smaller engine did little to boost sales, so that would say otherwise.

There's still reason to rest assured that yesterday's classic Commodore recipe will influence tomorrow's model.

Made in China?

Now, let's get one thing out of the way: GM and Ford are unlikely to reverse their decisions on their Australian operations. Ford and GM both have generally struggled to turn a significant profit there for the latter part of the decade. Ford alone lost $141 million after taxes during 2012 to 2013. !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! and sources at GM Australia have said the company !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . The Australian dollar can take some of the heat for that, it's value making domestic manufacturing unreasonable for the relatively small size of the market. Export programs carried out by GM have proven to be especially unprofitable because of the country's currency.

So the Holden Commodore will likely never be wholly developed in Australia, for Australia, and built by Australians again. As sad as it may be, it isn't hard to understand why when you realize that, coupled with an unfavorable exchange rate, it isn't financially feasible to pay the high costs to design, engineer, and build a car that only sold !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! (and has been steadily dropping from each previous year).

The current VF Commodore, which is a substantial refresh of the previous VE model, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! in development costs alone, which comes out to around $440 million USD at current exchange rates. If sales should dip by another 10,000 to 12,000 units for 2014, which would be the VF's first full year on sale, it would be hard to see the program quickly paying itself off, especially after Holden pays its bills and employees, let alone minting any money. The rabbit hole goes further, but we won't devote the time here to dive through all of the mess and the politics surrounding this meltdown.

It should be said, however, that the Commodore, in spite of its small sales figures and poor profitability, still managed to take home the number four position on 2012's sales charts and is still the best selling large car Down Under. The Ford Falcon, in contrast, wasn't even in the top ten and it isn't exempt from the same issues haunting the Commodore, either. If anything, what ails the Holden has been completely killing the Ford, and that's not to mention the Falcon was never given the opportunity to be exported like the Commodore. After Ford halts its Australian operations and !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , chances are nil it will ever fly again.

There's still some wind left in the Commodore's sails, and its because the car still shows promise that it will pack its bags and leave for a new home. That's pretty much a fact. But where will it wind up? Europe or China? Future Holdens will be built in both locations, sure, but neither location will likely be correct for the Commodore. Instead, the Commodore will probably be built in North America.

The Future Commodore

The Holden Commodore will not be directly replaced by a front-wheel drive, four-cylinder sedan made in China. There's evidence out there to support that. Instead, current aspirational Commodores – the SV6, SS, and Calais – will be replaced by a version of the next-generation Chevrolet SS sports sedan built in North America. Entry level Commodore Evoke models, on the other hand, will probably be indirectly replaced by the next-generation Holden Malibu.

It makes perfect sense. The current Holden (née Chevrolet) Malibu is already !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , mainly lacking in rear seat legroom. Since that is one of the biggest complaints aimed at the Malibu, it's reasonable to assume GM will make the car slightly larger to make the back seat more habitable the next go round. That will also put the upcoming replacement for the Malibu uncomfortably close to the size of the big Holden.

No one would blame you for believing that GM will take a more swoopy, trendy direction for the new 'Bu's styling either, considering that's how every other four-door family sedan is turning out these days. And that would certainly explain the design concepts "teased" in a !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! .

As of this writing, the Malibu is also currently built in China, and who knows? Maybe GM is considering importing Malibus from China into Australia in the future. !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , I wouldn't be surprised if the automaker shifts its Malibu imports from South Korea to China.

So there's your new front-drive, four-cylinder "Commodore" from China. But what about the real one?

That's simple enough. As of right now, Chevrolet has three large cars — the Impala, Caprice police model, and the SS sports sedan — that all could be easily replaced by a single model. GM also has a new platform in the works to compliment the recently introduced small to mid-sized Alpha platform found under the Cadillac ATS and the upcoming sixth-generation Camaro. Dubbed "Omega," it's !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . Hanging in there with me so far?

Since it seems Cadillac isn't against sending their platforms downstream to Chevrolet to reduce costs — and you can believe GM will do that given the small share of the market the new big Caddy is going claim — it wouldn't be at all unreasonable to assume the next-generation Impala will ride on a version of it as well. With a new rear-drive Impala to replace the Epsilon II-based car on sale now, GM could not only give the Dodge Charger a serious run for its money in the police car arena, but serve up a convenient replacement for the SS sedan as well. To keep the gravy train rolling, just slap on some Holden Commodore badges where necessary, send the result to Australia, and call it a day.

There's plenty of reason to keep holding out for the Commodore to have a safe journey into the future. Only one question remains, though. How would Australians accept a new American-built Commodore?

Like this article? Keep up with the stupidity by following me on Kinja or on Twitter !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . Peace out, girl scouts.

DISCUSSION (26)

Goshen, formerly Darkcode > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:24

I've heard that with the Commodore's demise, HSV will expand their range elsewhere. I'm oddly excited.

beardsbynelly - Rikerbeard > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:29

there's still hope for manufacturing, always hope, never stop hoping, nuh uh, always hoping. no death here. move along.

Where have all the lightweights gone? > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:31

I like the idea of a RWD Impala. Let's all hope this comes to pass.

Blake Noble > Where have all the lightweights gone?
02/05/2014 at 17:37

It's really what GM should've done from the start. In fact, they were going to do that before the whole Great Recession crap.

Know what? That's not really an excuse. They had the chance to have more rear-drive cars out by 2007 to 2008 but kept plunking along with Roger Smith's front-drive turdwagons for what reason I still don't understand.

JustWaitingForAMate > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:37

IF a US built Commodore appears in Australia, it'll be the first car that I'll rip the Lion badges off and replace with the Chevy bow tie. I'll be completely justified in doing so.

My only hope out of this debacle is that Australia gets a Camaro/Corvette/ATS and that pushes Dodge and Chrysler to send over the Charge/Challenger as well. Since everyone is going to platforms that allow LHD/RHD, this could be a reality.

The Commodore is dead and once they tack it's name onto whatever is coming in from China they'll have proven it by pissing on the corpse.

Blake Noble > beardsbynelly - Rikerbeard
02/05/2014 at 17:37

I can't see Toyota staying beyond 2020. I really can't.

beardsbynelly - Rikerbeard > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:43

you never know, that's two whole elections away.

Where have all the lightweights gone? > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 17:44

I don't, either. I remember reading an interview with Maximum Bob, and his next big push was to re-institute Pontiac as a driver's car brand again, including mostly RWD cars. It's a shame it didn't happen.

Blake Noble > JustWaitingForAMate
02/05/2014 at 18:01

You know, I've often wondered if the Charger would be successful Down Under. There's probably a market for it Chrysler hasn't really tapped yet.

JustWaitingForAMate > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 18:23

It'd probably sell better then the 300C they sell here.

Blake Noble > Where have all the lightweights gone?
02/05/2014 at 18:50

Agreed. It wouldn't have been hard to make that happen at Pontiac before the end came. All GM had to do was say no to the G3, G5 and G6. That might have also made it easier to convince the government that it didn't have to shut the brand down come bailout time.

But wait ... I forgot. GM couldn't turn it's back on the G6 because rental companies needed to keep something on their lots and who could say no to that money?

Simplify, then add beer > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 18:57

If 15 years ago they paid attention to the marketplace and built a car that most Australians actually wanted to own, it might be a different story.

But they kept making taxis, kept making fleet cars, and kept getting handouts.

A smaller 'coo-pay' as you put it with a decent interior and a turbo engine could have been well received. Imagine if they'd made something the size of a 3 series, with RWD. Imagine a Cruze but you know, fun.

The market changed around them, its no one but Holden's fault they are gone.

Blake Noble > Simplify, then add beer
02/05/2014 at 19:07

I started to argue with this post and then I remembered something.

Kinja'd!!!

I mean, the point you raised is sort of outside of the main point of the article, but it's wholeheartedly worthy of discussion here. GM built the Torana concept 10 years ago and it was feasible to produce. It was what you described almost perfectly. Why didn't GM do it? Again, I can't think of a good reason why.

Simplify, then add beer > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 19:23

You're right, I was a bit off track purely because I was driving over the Harbour bridge this morning and was behind a Ford XR6, when I realised it was the first privately owned Falcon/Commodore sedan I'd seen in over a week.

The sales figures you quoted are most likely including fleet sales. This means the large majority are being sold as taxis, cop cars, govt vehicles and the like. There is not much money in this, and definitely not enough to justify a US built model.

The way I see it, the Commodore or Falcon with a decent motor up front and drive in the back can only exist in higher priced, specialist vehicles akin to the Cadillac. Which means you're paying $80k for a Holden Dunnydore. For that kind of money, it has to be amazing.

For Sweden > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 20:23

GM has dumped too much money into the Alpha platform and the upcoming Cadillac flagship platform for them to abandon the non-luxury rwd sedan market. This is especially true if GM wants to continue selling police pursuit vehicles.

Blake Noble > For Sweden
02/05/2014 at 20:36

Precisely. Outside of a new Commodore/Impala, we'll probably see some new rear-drive models appear in the future at Buick too. That could get interesting. Velite concept, anyone?

Kinja'd!!!

Blake Noble > Simplify, then add beer
02/05/2014 at 20:40

If I'm right and GM is going replace the Caprice, Impala, and SS with one car, badging it as a Holden for export shouldn't be a big deal. What makes the current Commodore so unprofitable are the reasons I outlined above — exchange rates, engineering costs, and the size of the home market. If you can reverse all of that, fortunes should change.

For Sweden > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 20:42

I missed that paragraph, pretend I wasn't here.

Simplify, then add beer > Blake Noble
02/05/2014 at 23:19

To use the 300c as as comparison, the base model has to be under 40 grand.

That is a stretch. I can't see it landing for under 50, unless they sell the pants off it in the US to bring down production costs.

Blake Noble > Simplify, then add beer
02/05/2014 at 23:40

You also have the Cadillac sharing a common platform here, too. Don't forget about that.

I can also see this car being sold in the Middle East and possibly the UK to replace the Commodore-based VXR models.

It's also likely Buick will get a version to replace the Park Avenue in China and set above or replace the LaCrosse as a flagship model.

If GM spreads the costs around, it's entirely possible to be competitive there. Of course, in the end we'll have to wait and see how this plays out, but I also feel pretty good that we'll see a US-built something to replace the traditional Commodore.

jdrgoat - Ponticrack? > Blake Noble
02/06/2014 at 04:24

I would like to mention, since I didn't see it actually spelled out in the article, that the current Chevrolet Caprice PPV and SS are built in Aus and imported by boat to NA. The closest thing assembled here is the Camaro in Canada. And I'm not positive, but I think that is based more on the VE platform than the VF. (Maybe VE-2, if you will.) The Pontiac G8 was also imported and a VE platform, as was the GTO on the VY/VZ platform (it was kind of a mutt to the best of my understanding).

My point is, sadly, there there is no where in NA to build the continuation VF+ Commodore. Also, I should point out the sad likeliness that the Caprice PPV will probably be gone after 2016, also. Which will make it harder for me to find parts after I pick one up from auction in a few years.

jdrgoat - Ponticrack? > Blake Noble
02/06/2014 at 04:27

The current VF Commodore, which is a substantial refresh of the previous VE model, racked up A$500 million in development costs alone, which comes out to $4.4 billion USD at current exchange rates.

Correction, $500m AUD is roughly $448m USD. We're not quite 1:1 right now, but nowhere near 1:1000.

Blake Noble > jdrgoat - Ponticrack?
02/06/2014 at 09:38

Oops! Thank you, sir. Corrected.

Blake Noble > jdrgoat - Ponticrack?
02/06/2014 at 09:47

What? Of course there is. The Omega platform cars will be built at GM's Hamtramck location.

jdrgoat - Ponticrack? > Blake Noble
02/06/2014 at 18:17

I see. I was thinking of 'currently' and not of where platforms are going to built in the near future. But still the current large RWD Chevy sedans are not built in NA currently. A continuation of the Commodore (and, can I keep hoping for the Ute) would be awesome. And if they built it in NA, there's now no chicken tax on the Ute. GM would own the small truck market if they had the new Colorado and a new El Camino. ...Maybe this is part of the plan, to bring back the GMC Sprint. That could be the model they were talking about when they said there would be a GMC that didn't have a Chevy counterpart...

Blake Noble > jdrgoat - Ponticrack?
02/06/2014 at 20:02

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't know if the Ute is going to survive beyond this decade. The wagon, probably . The Ute ... probably not. Like the ElCamino during the '80s, the Ute has seen its market share eroded away by small pickups like the Colorado and Ranger, it's profitability going with it.

GMC will likely either get a version of the Brazilian Chevy Trailblazer or the Chevy Trax.